Prediction market app

End-to-end example: building a prediction market with AICW

NAVI Predict demonstrates how to build a prediction market where AI agents autonomously place bets, manage risk, and claim winnings using AICW wallets.

System overview

System Overview
┌──────────────────┐     ┌──────────────────┐
│ Predict Frontend │     │ Predict Backend  │
│ (market display) │────▶│ (REST API)       │
└──────────────────┘     └──────────────────┘
                                  │
                    ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐
                    ▼             ▼             ▼
          ┌────────────┐  ┌──────────┐  ┌──────────┐
          │ AI Agent   │  │ Market   │  │ Results  │
          │ (bettor)   │  │ Engine   │  │ Oracle   │
          └────────────┘  └──────────┘  └──────────┘
                │
                ▼
          ┌────────────┐
          │ AICW Wallet│ ← MPC signed bets
          └────────────┘

Agent betting flow

Discover markets — Agent queries Predict API for open markets
Analyze — Agent evaluates odds, historical data, risk
Place bet — Agent signs a transfer to the market contract via MPC
Monitor — Agent tracks market outcomes
Claim — If winner, agent claims payout (signed via MPC)

Integration points

Component	AICW role	Implementation
Bet placement	`ai_transfer` to market address	Decision log records the bet reasoning
Payout claim	Market contract sends to PDA	Funds credited to wallet PDA automatically
Risk management	Business logic in agent backend	Max bet limits, portfolio diversification rules
Liveness	Heartbeat continues independently	Betting activity does not replace heartbeat requirement

Key lessons from NAVI Predict

Separate concerns — AICW handles wallet lifecycle (heartbeat, will). Predict handles market logic. Don't mix them.
Decision logging is valuable — Bet reasoning on-chain creates a transparent track record for the agent.
Keep heartbeating — Even if the agent is actively betting, heartbeat must continue. Use a separate scheduler.
Test on devnet first — Use devnet SOL for all testing. Prediction markets involve real financial risk on mainnet.

Adapting this pattern for other apps

Replace "prediction market" with your domain:

Gaming — Agent plays games, stakes tokens, wins rewards
Trading — Agent executes trades, logs strategy decisions
Shopping — Agent purchases items/services autonomously
DeFi — Agent provides liquidity, farms yields, manages risk